Hey Dems! Don't Reject the Red States Just Yet...

News Type: Opinion — Sun Mar 9, 2008 6:44 PM EDT

politics, obama, republican, clinton, democrat, 2008-election, red-states, blue-states, purple-states

"We are not a nation of red states and blue states, we are the United States of America"

Photo by Jackie. (License: Creative Commons Attribution)

After stacking up victories in some of the nation's reddest states while motivating record democratic primary turnouts, Barack Obama has purported that he can create a new Democratic coalition that Hillary Clinton cannot. According to recent polls, his claims are not at all far-fetched.

A couple of days ago, I was shocked when I received an email citing polling numbers that showed Barack Obama nearly winning my home state of Nebraska against John McCain. I went to the poll to check the numbers and was amazed at what I found:

State Results: John McCain - 45%, Barack Obama 42%
District 1 Results: John McCain - 42%, Barack Obama - 44%
District 2 Results: John McCain - 43%, Barack Obama - 45%

Now, allow me to put this into perspective. This is a state that hasn't voted Democrat since 1964 when Lyndon B. Johnson was running against Barry Goldwater. In 2004, Nebraska went to Bush 66-33, a rise of 4 points for Bush since 2000. In that same year, Douglas County (the mainstay of District 2, including most of the city of Omaha) went to Bush 58-40 while Lancaster County (the mainstay of District 1, including the city of Lincoln) went to Bush 56-42. The fact that Barack Obama is so close in the polls here, is truly remarkable.

More remarkable is the fact that even if Obama does not win the state of Nebraska, it doesn't mean he will come out empty-handed. Nebraska is one of two states with the possibility of a split electoral vote. With these early polls showing him in the lead in two Nebraska districts, Obama would split the vote with McCain 2-3.

Thinking about the possibility of my state going Democratic made me more than giddy, so I decided to investigate where the rest of the country stands with regard to McCain vs. Obama and I found some pretty interesting things. Most importantly, according to current SurveyUSA polling, Obama flips a number of other "red states" and "purple states" to win the presidency including:

Iowa: In 2004, 50-49 Bush. Current polling, 50-41 Obama.
Colorado: In 2004, 52-47 Bush. Current polling, 50-41 Obama.
North Dakota: in 2004, 63-37 Bush. Current polling, 46-42 Obama.
New Mexico: In 2004, 50-49 Bush. Current polling, 50-43 Obama.
Nevada: in 2004, 51-48 Bush. Current polling, 46-41 Obama.
Virginia: In 2004, 54-45 Bush. Current polling, 47-47 Obama.
Ohio: In 2004, 51-49 Bush. Current polling, 50-40 Obama.

Also significant are the states he nearly wins:

Texas: In 2004, 61-38 Bush. Current polling, 47-46 McCain.
South Carolina: In 2004, 58-41 Bush. Current polling, 48-45 McCain.
North Carolina: In 2004, 56-44 Bush. Current polling, 47-45 McCain.
Florida: In 2004, 52-47 Bush. Current polling, 47-45 McCain.

So, while not putting too much weight on polling numbers, the idea that Obama cannot bring in a new democratic coalition of voters is ridiculous. On the flip side, current polling also shows Hillary Clinton winning the presidency, but in a very different, more polarizing way. Hillary wins most of the Democratic mainstays, while bringing in Arkansas, New Mexico and Florida. However, she loses Democratic strongholds in Washington, Oregon, New Hampshire and Michigan. Also, when you look at a red state like Nebraska for example, rather than waging a tight race, she loses big, 57-30 to McCain.

Obviously, after debates get underway between the Republicans and Democrats, things will begin to shift. But right now, which scenario would you rather have? If you ask me, a bad image is hard to fight. Most people that won't vote for Hillary now, won't vote for her later. Barack Obama, on the other hand, has image on his side. The more he is able to debate John McCain and make himself and his ideas known, the more opportunities he will have to win over independents and republicans, creating a larger democratic majority.

18 Votes
Enjoy this article? Help vote it up the 'Vine.

Published to:

SpotlightDIVA's Column, All of Newsvine
Groups: Centervine, Election News, Left of Center, ObamaExpress, ObamaVine, Political Analysis, The Big 2008 Election, The Bigger 2008 Election , The young and the damned
Regions: none

What's this?

Who's leading the conversation?

This visualization below allows you to see the impact that each user has on the current conversation. The top row contains the group of users who have had the most impact, the 2nd row the group of users who have had the 2nd most impact (et cetera). Users with similar impact are grouped together, and the average score of the group is shown to the left of the group. The author of the article is also shown on the left, in their corresponding group. Each user's score is based on the number of comments the user has made plus the number of votes their comments have received. The scores are calculated relative one another, so while their absolute value is not particularly important, their relative difference does indicate a larger difference in impact on the conversation.

1.8

{"commentId":1559076,"authorDomain":"spotlightdiva"}

SpotlightDIVA

Having grown up there, if Obama can win in a state like Nebraska...that says a lot about his chances in November. These numbers are very encouraging across the board. If Obama has time to establish himself in the debates against McCain, I think November should look very favorably upon Dems.

{"commentId":1559076,"threadId":"232031","contentId":"1353612","authorDomain":"spotlightdiva"}

5 votes

#1 - Sun Mar 9, 2008 6:47 PM EDT

{"commentId":1559524,"authorDomain":"juppiecat"}

JUPPIECATDeleted

{"commentId":1559559,"authorDomain":"renaissancelady46"}

Navyvet48

Kansas has not gone Democratic in 44 years Wyoming has not voted Democratic in 40. I do not know about Wyoming but I know Kansas will vote Republican. The Democratic challenger for Pat Roberts seat (he has been a Senator for 40 years) dropped out after less than 2 months. I still think red states will be red states.

{"commentId":1559559,"threadId":"232031","contentId":"1353612","authorDomain":"renaissancelady46"}

1 vote

#1.2 - Sun Mar 9, 2008 9:31 PM EDT

{"commentId":1560303,"authorDomain":"spotlightdiva"}

SpotlightDIVA

JUPPIECAT, thank you! I appreciate your comments. I have to say the Clintons efforts to play mind games with the press and the voters is rather appalling. Who are they to say they have won this election? Who is Hillary to say she has more experience and is more ready to be commander-in-chief? The entire Clinton strategy is based on running on the presumption that Hillary is entitled to the presidency. It should be dismissed by the media and the voters--but unfortunately that isn't happening in the manner it should.

Navyvet48, thanks for your comments. I understand that not all red states will switch, that's a given. However, even you must admit that the number of prospective red states that may make the switch is encouraging. My sample case of Nebraska proves the point that red state switching is not only possible but probable.

{"commentId":1560303,"threadId":"232031","contentId":"1353612","authorDomain":"spotlightdiva"}

1 vote

#1.3 - Mon Mar 10, 2008 4:31 AM EDT

{"commentId":1564396,"authorDomain":"cliffpotter"}

Cliff Potter

Assume that your use of "while motivating record democratic primary turnouts" includes the usual assertions by Obama supporters that Obama not Clinton has motivated voters. You will of course, point to the 10,000 who turned out for Obama and the 5,000 who turned out for Clinton in Ohio, and how Ohio managed to cheat their way to voting for Clinton. And the certainty of Obama being the choice for all those blue chit voters.

Your poll is not consistent with the most recent poll. But at the very least, you must admit that the dates of the polls are important to show how the electorate is subject to change. And that the change is not in Obama's favor no matter what poll you consider.

Nebraska has no possibility of going Democrat, no matter what Obama supporters may say. There is not enough yuppie and Gen x and y to get around the real body politic of Nebraska.

We will see who is right in November.

{"commentId":1564396,"threadId":"232031","contentId":"1353612","authorDomain":"cliffpotter"}

1 vote

#1.4 - Tue Mar 11, 2008 8:38 AM EDT

{"commentId":1559130,"authorDomain":"njb"}

njb

I agree. In simple terms, I think we are all pretty sick of the status quo and ready to take a chance on something new, on a more national, emotional level, we, at least many of us, are ready, to stop hating each other over something--we don't even know what is was anymore.

I believe he can do it, Iowa matters, Nebraska matters, all those small states matter. they are the heartlands, they matter.

I spent a decade in the Black Hills of South Dakota on the side of a mountain, they matter.

It speaks volumes that the hardest working, toughest folks I have ever known are sick and tired of the same old lies. They are ready, we are ready.

{"commentId":1559130,"threadId":"232031","contentId":"1353612","authorDomain":"njb"}

2 votes

#2 - Sun Mar 9, 2008 7:07 PM EDT

{"commentId":1559173,"authorDomain":"spotlightdiva"}

SpotlightDIVA

It speaks volumes that the hardest working, toughest folks I have ever known are sick and tired of the same old lies. They are ready, we are ready.

Amen! Woo...I could not have said it better myself. Thanks for commenting.

One thing I think politicians take for granted is the political ideology of certain geographical areas in our country. The Clintons are a prime example of the politicians that assume a state like Nebraska that has voted Republican for the past 40 years will continue to vote that way. The reason why Obama won Nebraska 70-30 in the primary is because he showed us some respect. He came to our state, he talked to people there, he held rallies in Omaha and Lincoln--he made us feel like we matter. Bill Clinton never visited Nebraska during his entire 8 years as president. George Bush has visited Nebraska more than 8 times. It doesn't take a genius to do the math there.

This is why Barack Obama appeals to so many people, across so many divides--he treats everyone like they matter. Just like in his 2004 speech, to him there are no "red states" or "blue states" just the United States. He doesn't just talk the talk, he lives it--and that resonates with people.

{"commentId":1559173,"threadId":"232031","contentId":"1353612","authorDomain":"spotlightdiva"}

4 votes

#2.1 - Sun Mar 9, 2008 7:20 PM EDT

{"commentId":1559242,"authorDomain":"richard2008"}

mookie

Extremely impressive numbers. Thank you for the effort. The notion that new coalitions can be formed is one that hasn't quite sunk in with those who can only look at today through the rear view mirror. Many Dems are still fighting the wars of 2000 and 2004 (including the Clintons). Time to throw that map out the window.

{"commentId":1559242,"threadId":"232031","contentId":"1353612","authorDomain":"richard2008"}

4 votes

#3 - Sun Mar 9, 2008 7:49 PM EDT

{"commentId":1559291,"authorDomain":"spotlightdiva"}

SpotlightDIVA

The notion that new coalitions can be formed is one that hasn't quite sunk in with those who can only look at today through the rear view mirror.

Indeed. Thanks for the comment Richard. I think Obama will bring light to these numbers should it come down to the convention and more people will be forced to look towards the future. The last thing the democrats want, is to continue this strategy of divide and conquer--that's the strategy that lost them the Congress in 1996, and that gave the Republicans the presidency in 2000 and 2004.

{"commentId":1559291,"threadId":"232031","contentId":"1353612","authorDomain":"spotlightdiva"}

2 votes

#3.1 - Sun Mar 9, 2008 8:06 PM EDT

{"commentId":1559256,"authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}

jfxgillis

Spotlight:

Most excellent, both the write-up and the news you wrote up.

I was bantering with Cliff yesterday about which states are more important to show strength in during the primaries and I argued for Purple and Hot pink states (leans rather than solid Republican), and we discussed some of those same state.

If Obama can carry Colorado, he can win the White House.

ON EDIT: But damn. Same old flickr pic of Obama. PUL--leeeeze. The Obama campaign itself has a flickr account with CC licenses that has 15,000 images to choose from.

{"commentId":1559256,"threadId":"232031","contentId":"1353612","authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}

4 votes

#4 - Sun Mar 9, 2008 7:54 PM EDT

{"commentId":1559278,"authorDomain":"spotlightdiva"}

SpotlightDIVA

Thanks! Yeah, I witnessed your banter about the whole idea of an RPI for the primaries (which I think is a good idea), but decided not to take part--Cliff sometimes just frustrates me too much.

One thing about these numbers though, is that it defies conventional wisdom. I'll be the first to admit that Nebraska is about as red as it gets--but Obama actually has a shot there. I dunno, it'll be interesting if Obama wins the nomination. I fear a Hillary nod.

EDIT: Thanks for the heads-up. I'll check it out next time.

{"commentId":1559278,"threadId":"232031","contentId":"1353612","authorDomain":"spotlightdiva"}

2 votes

#4.1 - Sun Mar 9, 2008 8:02 PM EDT

{"commentId":1559302,"authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}

jfxgillis

Spotlight:

Here's one I favorited to make some joke I never made about dope-smoking-hippie Obama supporters or something.

{"commentId":1559302,"threadId":"232031","contentId":"1353612","authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}

2 votes

#4.2 - Sun Mar 9, 2008 8:10 PM EDT

{"commentId":1559310,"authorDomain":"spotlightdiva"}

SpotlightDIVA

Hahaha...thanks for that, Jack. When you're not making insightful comments, you're always good for a laugh. :)

{"commentId":1559310,"threadId":"232031","contentId":"1353612","authorDomain":"spotlightdiva"}

1 vote

#4.3 - Sun Mar 9, 2008 8:14 PM EDT

{"commentId":1559332,"authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}

jfxgillis

Spotlight:

... you're always good for a laugh.

There some dispute about that a week or so ago, but we better not go there.

:^{)>

{"commentId":1559332,"threadId":"232031","contentId":"1353612","authorDomain":"jfxgillis"}

2 votes

#4.4 - Sun Mar 9, 2008 8:21 PM EDT

{"commentId":1559327,"authorDomain":"aldefi"}

Alexander De Filippi

The Presidential Race - Reading The Tea Leafs - More Questions Than Answers

Sunday, March 09, 2008

By Alexander De Filippi

Alexanderdefilippi.blogspot.com

To be one hundred percent fair, Republicans should retain the White House this year; nevertheless I do not believe they will. In fact they should have never lost Congress, nevertheless they did, mainstream, republicans were very surprised of the 2006 congressional results, as almost everyone, this time they seem resigned to loose the White House, or at least they won't feel surprised if they do. Why? They feel down, feisty, but down. The republicans have done mistakes, without any doubt, some of them, major mistakes, but in an election year with only 4.8 percent unemployment rate they should feel happier but they don't. They should feel more confident, considering they have a nominee that appeals greatly to the independent and the moderate, and that the democrats are engaged in an awful confrontation, and whoever becomes their nominee will be of an untested material, a woman or a black male.

Common wisdom suggests that divided democrats with an untested type of nominee should not be a match for someone like John McCain. Nevertheless, again, mainstream republicans aren't feeling good, simply they seem unable to get along with him, or they do not want to get along with him.

Perhaps republicans do not want neither the White House nor recover Congress; perhaps they assume that the next four years the US will face extreme economic turmoil and serious terrorist attacks affecting the biggest cities in the country such as New York, DC and LA. Therefore, it is better for them to see the spectacle from the distance while a democrat president and a democrat congress juggles with one major problem after another. Perhaps republicans see that in four years they would be able to return to power with a candidate of their like and additionally retake congress. Considering this scenario, perhaps the democrats shouldn't take the White House but let McCain to be the next president, so far appears that John McCain is as a big pain in the butt for republicans as a democrat would be, with the big caveat that anything going wrong during the next four years would be blame on the Republicans and not on the Democrats.

{"commentId":1559327,"threadId":"232031","contentId":"1353612","authorDomain":"aldefi"}

1 vote

#5 - Sun Mar 9, 2008 8:20 PM EDT

{"commentId":1559565,"authorDomain":"juppiecat"}

JUPPIECATDeleted

{"commentId":1559819,"authorDomain":"mscyprah"}

Ms CYPRAH

What a very interesting and informative article. Well done, SpotlightDIVA, thanks for this. It gives great hope for Obama. At least the facts speak for themselves.

{"commentId":1559819,"threadId":"232031","contentId":"1353612","authorDomain":"mscyprah"}

5 votes

#7 - Sun Mar 9, 2008 10:59 PM EDT

{"commentId":1560309,"authorDomain":"spotlightdiva"}

SpotlightDIVA

Thanks Ms Cyprah. I agree that the facts speak for themselves. Hopefully this is what those superdelegates will look at when it comes time for them to make a decision between Clinton and Obama.

{"commentId":1560309,"threadId":"232031","contentId":"1353612","authorDomain":"spotlightdiva"}

2 votes

#7.1 - Mon Mar 10, 2008 4:37 AM EDT

{"canLink":false,"threadId":"232031","isPrivate":false}

SPOTLIGHTDIVA

Backyard

Hey Dems! Don't Reject the Red States Just Yet...

Published to:

FUN STUFF:

COMPANY STUFF:

LEGAL STUFF: