Hey Dems! Don't Reject the Red States Just Yet...

"We are not a nation of red states and blue states, we are the United States of America"

Photo by Jackie. (License: Creative Commons Attribution)

After stacking up victories in some of the nation's reddest states while motivating record democratic primary turnouts, Barack Obama has purported that he can create a new Democratic coalition that Hillary Clinton cannot. According to recent polls, his claims are not at all far-fetched.

A couple of days ago, I was shocked when I received an email citing polling numbers that showed Barack Obama nearly winning my home state of Nebraska against John McCain. I went to the poll to check the numbers and was amazed at what I found:

• State Results: John McCain - 45%, Barack Obama 42%
• District 1 Results: John McCain - 42%, Barack Obama - 44%
• District 2 Results: John McCain - 43%, Barack Obama - 45%

Now, allow me to put this into perspective. This is a state that hasn't voted Democrat since 1964 when Lyndon B. Johnson was running against Barry Goldwater. In 2004, Nebraska went to Bush 66-33, a rise of 4 points for Bush since 2000. In that same year, Douglas County (the mainstay of District 2, including most of the city of Omaha) went to Bush 58-40 while Lancaster County (the mainstay of District 1, including the city of Lincoln) went to Bush 56-42. The fact that Barack Obama is so close in the polls here, is truly remarkable.

More remarkable is the fact that even if Obama does not win the state of Nebraska, it doesn't mean he will come out empty-handed. Nebraska is one of two states with the possibility of a split electoral vote. With these early polls showing him in the lead in two Nebraska districts, Obama would split the vote with McCain 2-3.

Thinking about the possibility of my state going Democratic made me more than giddy, so I decided to investigate where the rest of the country stands with regard to McCain vs. Obama and I found some pretty interesting things. Most importantly, according to current SurveyUSA polling, Obama flips a number of other "red states" and "purple states" to win the presidency including:

• Iowa: In 2004, 50-49 Bush. Current polling, 50-41 Obama.
• Colorado: In 2004, 52-47 Bush. Current polling, 50-41 Obama.
• North Dakota: in 2004, 63-37 Bush. Current polling, 46-42 Obama.
• New Mexico: In 2004, 50-49 Bush. Current polling, 50-43 Obama.
• Nevada: in 2004, 51-48 Bush. Current polling, 46-41 Obama.
• Virginia: In 2004, 54-45 Bush. Current polling, 47-47 Obama.
• Ohio: In 2004, 51-49 Bush. Current polling, 50-40 Obama.

Also significant are the states he nearly wins:

• Texas: In 2004, 61-38 Bush. Current polling, 47-46 McCain.
• South Carolina: In 2004, 58-41 Bush. Current polling, 48-45 McCain.
• North Carolina: In 2004, 56-44 Bush. Current polling, 47-45 McCain.
• Florida: In 2004, 52-47 Bush. Current polling, 47-45 McCain.

So, while not putting too much weight on polling numbers, the idea that Obama cannot bring in a new democratic coalition of voters is ridiculous. On the flip side, current polling also shows Hillary Clinton winning the presidency, but in a very different, more polarizing way. Hillary wins most of the Democratic mainstays, while bringing in Arkansas, New Mexico and Florida. However, she loses Democratic strongholds in Washington, Oregon, New Hampshire and Michigan. Also, when you look at a red state like Nebraska for example, rather than waging a tight race, she loses big, 57-30 to McCain.

Obviously, after debates get underway between the Republicans and Democrats, things will begin to shift. But right now, which scenario would you rather have? If you ask me, a bad image is hard to fight. Most people that won't vote for Hillary now, won't vote for her later. Barack Obama, on the other hand, has image on his side. The more he is able to debate John McCain and make himself and his ideas known, the more opportunities he will have to win over independents and republicans, creating a larger democratic majority.

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